Multiple forecasters now expect global crude benchmarks to average near $50/BBL in 2026. If that happens, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also projects regular gasoline averaging about $2.90/gallon in 2026 — below recent years’ gas prices but still sensitive to:

  • Refinery margins
  • Taxes
  • Regional constraints

Recent 2026 Oil Price Predictions

In the EIA’s September 2026 Short Term Energy Outlook, they predict that Brent crude prices will average ~$51/BBL in 2026 (vs. $68/BBL in 2025), driven by oil inventory builds as OPEC+ supply increases.1 The investment bank Goldman Sachs on August 27, 2025, confirmed the EIA’s prediction, with a base case forecast for Brent crude oil in the low $50s/BBL by late 2026, citing a persistent surplus and large OECD stock builds.2 Other industry outlets have also echoed the EIA’s path for oil prices to be in the high-$60s in 2025, falling to approximately $51/BBL in 2026.3

Why are lower oil prices expected in 2026? Forecasts emphasize supply growth and inventory builds as key drivers; other downside price risks include demand softness, while upside risks mentioned include supply outages or geopolitics.

What Does That Imply for U.S. Gasoline?

The EIA currently expects U.S. regular retail gasoline to average about $2.90/gallon in 2026 (down from approximately $3.10/gallon in 2025), with most regions below coming in below $3.00 per gallon, except on the West Coast, which has higher environmental compliance costs and taxes.4

RBOB Futures vs. Prices at the Pump

Analysts often look at NY Harbor RBOB gasoline futures (a blendstock price) to anticipate retail trends. RBOB is a refinery/pipeline-grade blendstock traded in 42,000-gallon contracts; it does not include retail taxes or station margins and requires ethanol blending to meet finished-gas specs. In short, RBOB tracks wholesale and not the final taxed pump price.5

Checking of The Experts

To provide context on these forecasts for gasoline prices given lower future oil prices, we began by reviewing the relationship between spot oil prices and RBOB gas prices over the last five years. This analysis was prepared with pricing information downloaded from the EIA.

WTI Spot Oil Prices

Figure 1

RBOB Gasoline

Figure 2

As shown, the movements in oil prices and gas prices are correlated, as crude oil is the primary input for gasoline.

Using this same information in a regression analysis shows a predictable relationship between the two commodities, with oil price movements explaining almost 90% of resulting gas prices over the same period.

Gasoline Price Vs. Oil Cost

Figure 3

Considering the regression formula shown, it implies that $50 oil would result in an RBOB gas price of about $2.48 per gallon. Adding retail taxes of about $0.57/gallon to this amount (18.4¢ federal taxes and 38¢ state and local taxes on average) results in an expected cost of about $3.05 per gallon for retail gasoline. This price would be lowered slightly for the inclusion of 10% of ethanol, currently averaging about $1.90 per gallon,6 resulting in an expected price of $2.93 per gallon, in line with the EIA’s forecast of $2.90 per gallon.7

Bottom Line

If crude averages around $50/BBL in 2026, the central path from EIA and major banks implies U.S. regular gasoline will have a retail price at the pump of $2.90/gallon. This results in gas prices expected to be meaningfully cheaper than recent years but still subject to refinery balances, taxes, and regional factors. For consumers and businesses budgeting fuel, the base case is relief, with upside price risk tied to supply disruptions or policy surprises.

WTI Strip Prices Decrease

Spot prices and futures prices for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract decreased approximately $4.25 per barrel in the near term and decreased approximately $2.00 over the longer term.

WTI Strip Prices – One Month Change

Figure 4

As shown, after the expectation of lower near-term pricing, the oil price curve is shifting to a state of “contango,” reflecting the market’s expectation of higher future spot prices over the longer term.

Oil Price Outlook

The price distribution below shows the crude oil spot price on October 15, 2025, as well as the predicted crude oil prices based on options and futures markets. Light blue lines are within one standard deviation (σ) of the mean, and dark blue lines are within two standard deviations.

WTI Crude Oil $/BBL

Figure 5

Based on these current prices, the markets indicate there is a 68% chance oil prices will range from $49.00 and $68.50 per barrel in mid-January 2026. Likewise, there is roughly a 95% chance that prices will be between $35.50 and $94.50. By mid-March 2026, the one-standard deviation (1σ) price range is $47.00 to $72.00 per barrel, and the two-standard deviation (2σ) range is $31.50 to $109.50 per barrel.

Insights

Remember that while option prices and models reflect expected probabilities rather than certain outcomes, they remain a useful tool for assessing market expectations and risk. Throughout most of 2023 and 2024, crude oil spot prices generally fluctuated within the range of $70 to $90 per barrel. During that period, we observed general increases in futures price volatilities as prices approached the upper and lower bounds of that range. In recent months, crude oil spot prices have generally remained below that range, apart from a brief spike driven by the conflict between Israel and Iran. For mid-March 2026 pricing as of October 15, 2025, the 1σ range had a spread of $25.00 per barrel, and the 2σ range had a spread of $78.00 per barrel, indicating a general increase in spreads as the market remains uncertain about future price expectations.

  1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 9, 2025.
  2. Sam Boughedda, “Goldman Sachs sees Brent oil prices falling to low $50s by late 2026,” Investing.com, August 27, 2025.
  3. Andreas Exarheas, “USA EIA Reveals Latest WTI Oil Price Forecast,” Rigzone, September 15, 2025.
  4. “EIA expects U.S. drivers will spend the smallest share of their disposable income on gasoline since 2005,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, September 9, 2025.
  5. “RBOB Gasoline Futures - Contract Specs,” CME Group.
  6. National Weekly Ethanol Report, Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “How much tax do we pay on a gallon of gasoline and on a gallon of diesel fuel?”