Steel Market Snapshot: The Pre-Tariff Landscape Heading Into 2025

After a modest rebound in demand during 2022 and 2023 following the COVID-driven downturn and pricing volatility, the U.S. domestic steel market faced a challenging 2024. The year was marked by a sharp increase in steel supply, fueled largely by a surge in imports during the first half, exacerbating already weak demand and straining market conditions. This mismatch led to bloated downstream inventories and a persistent surplus throughout the year. However, as 2025 approached, signs of a stronger market began to emerge.

An Emerging, Stronger Market

Inflation was finally easing, and consumer confidence was on the mend. Housing market dynamics were shifting as cumulative underbuilt homes approached nearly 4 million, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates dipping below 6.0%, creating new opportunities for homeowners to sell and explore fresh investment prospects in the housing market. This newfound mobility was poised to revitalize residential construction, a sector critical to steel demand.

Additionally, non-residential construction, both public and private, was projected to grow at an annual rate of almost 5.0%, driven by a surge in commercial and industrial projects as well as significant government investment. Legislation such as the American Rescue Plan ($1.9 trillion), the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act ($1.2 trillion), and the Inflation Reduction Act ($750 billion) had unleashed billions of dollars in funding, spurring infrastructure upgrades and large-scale construction projects. With new construction accounting for roughly 40% of annual steel consumption, these developments were expected to provide a substantial boost to the domestic steel market.

Entering 2025 on a Solid Footing

The U.S. economy was entering 2025 on solid footing, setting itself apart from other developed economies. Both consumers and businesses had healthier balance sheets, paving the way for accelerated growth in discretionary markets, particularly the automotive sector, which had closed out a strong Q4 2024 and accounts for approximately 25% of domestic steel production. Meanwhile, excess mill capacity positioned U.S. steelmakers to ramp up production, with output likely to surpass 2021 levels and hit a five-year high.

As 2025 approached, the U.S. steel industry seemed poised for a strong year, bolstered by robust demand drivers and favorable economic conditions. The combination of easing inflation, healthy consumer and business balance sheets, and increased construction activity set the stage for a promising outlook.

Yet, beyond 2025, challenges began to cast a shadow over the market’s momentum. Slower economic growth, reduced infrastructure spending, and persistent uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policies threatened to stall progress in the year ahead.

U.S. Steel Production (in million short tons)

*Source: AISI, Census Bureau, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Steel Imports / Exports (in million short tons)

*Source: AISI, Census Bureau, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Metals Pricing

*Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Forging the Future: Challenges and Adjustments in the Domestic Steel Market

Tariffs Shake U.S. Steel Market: Mixed expectations for 2025 as rising costs and slowing demand persist, but strength endures in market-resistant sectors like aerospace and defense, data centers, and power generation

The March 12 imposition of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries marked a significant shift in the U.S. steel market. Designed to strengthen domestic manufacturing and encourage onshoring, these tariffs are broader and stricter than those introduced in 2018, applying to nearly all imports with limited exemptions. While the policy aims to bolster U.S. steelmakers and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, its near-term effects have proven mixed, creating a ripple effect across demand, pricing, and production.

The tariffs have introduced headwinds to U.S. steel demand, which is now projected to decline approximately 5.0% in the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026. While not a crisis-level contraction, this decline mirrors the moderate slowdowns of past cyclical downturns in the 1990s and 2000s. Economic uncertainty has slowed activity in key sectors, with private construction projects delayed and automotive supply chains disrupted. Even public construction, typically more stable, has seen limited gains, unable to offset broader demand pressures.

Effects on Automotive Manufacturing

Automotive manufacturing, a key steel-consuming industry, has been particularly affected. Tariffs on imported vehicle parts have raised costs for automakers, including those producing domestically, as many vehicles still rely on imported components. These higher costs have translated into increased vehicle prices, dampening consumer demand and offsetting some of the intended benefits of steel-specific tariffs. While the long-term objective of encouraging more U.S.-based manufacturing remains promising, near-term challenges are weighing on demand.

Steel Price and Production Effects

Steel prices, which saw some recovery early in 2025, are now under renewed pressure from tepid demand, softening lead times, and oversupply stemming from 2024’s import hangover and cautious service center purchases during the Q1 price rally. While spot prices for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel remain higher than last year, declining service center activity signals potential headwinds for further price increases. Import parity adds further uncertainty, with costs from Canada and Mexico estimated at $800 per short ton and European imports reaching up to $950 per short ton. Cheaper sources like Brazil and Southeast Asia offer alternatives but with lower tonnage and the risk of triggering additional policy actions. Meanwhile, potential Section 232 tariff exemptions for Canada and Mexico remain a wildcard, clouding the pricing outlook further.

The domestic steel industry has seen a slowdown in production. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), seasonally adjusted output as of April 2025 totaled 24.2 million net tons, down 1.3% from the same period in 2024. Capacity utilization has also slipped to 74.6%, falling short of the administration’s stated goal of 80.0%. Extended lead times of four to five weeks and delays in shipments further underscore the challenges facing the sector.

Uncertainty in Steel-Consuming Industries

Key steel-consuming industries, such as construction and automotive, are grappling with uncertainty. While government-funded public infrastructure projects and resilient sectors like defense have provided a measure of stability, private construction and automotive demand continue to struggle with sluggish growth. The automotive sector in particular faces significant challenges as tariffs on auto parts drive up production costs and dampen consumer demand. North American light vehicle production totaled 15.4 million units in the 12 months through March, a 1.8% decline YoY. With its intricate supply chain, the industry remains vulnerable amid the ongoing trade tensions.

While the long-term goal of tariffs is to create a more self-reliant and competitive domestic manufacturing base, their immediate effects have been mixed. Higher costs for manufacturers, weaker demand, and lingering policy uncertainty have created headwinds, leading analysts to revise forecasts for domestic steel output to a 1.5-million-ton YoY decline for 2025, far from the 9-million-ton boost that was anticipated by analysts in late 2024. As the industry navigates inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and tepid sentiment, its ability to balance support for U.S. manufacturing with mitigating economic strain will be critical to shaping the domestic steel market’s future.

North American Light Vehicle Production (in millions)

*Source: Fastmarkets, Oxford Economics

Navigating Demand: Insights From Domestic Steel Producers and Distributors

As Q1 2025 earnings reports rolled in, the largest domestic steel producers and distributors expressed mixed sentiments about the current state of the market and the near-term outlook. The industry continues to grapple with a blend of resilience and challenges, as economic uncertainty, trade dynamics, and tariffs weigh heavily on profitability and demand.

Counteracting Weaker Demand

Across the sector, companies showcased disciplined cost management and operational efficiency as key strategies to counteract weaker demand. Investments in advanced production capabilities, such as new steel mills and coating facilities, highlight the industry’s commitment to strengthening domestic manufacturing. Sustainability remains a central focus, with ongoing efforts to reduce emissions and incorporate recycled materials into production processes, aligning with customer preferences for low-carbon solutions.

Tariff-related uncertainty continues to dominate discussions, particularly around Section 232 steel tariffs, which are reshaping pricing dynamics, supply chains, and trade flows. While reduced import competition has benefited some players, higher costs for manufacturers, distributors, and downstream industries have tempered optimism. Broader global trade risks, including elevated exports from China and geopolitical tensions in Europe, add further pressure to pricing and demand.

The financial results of industry leaders revealed both strengths and weaknesses. Several companies reported record shipments and higher revenues, driven by reduced import competition and operational improvements. However, others faced margin pressures stemming from rising raw material and energy costs, lagging spot prices, and elevated working capital. Despite these hurdles, many producers and distributors maintained strong balance sheets and continued investing in growth opportunities, signaling confidence in long-term demand trends.

Sector-Specific Demand Trends

According to key players in the steel market, automotive production faces significant pressure from rising costs tied to tariffs on imported parts, presenting risks to profitability. Meanwhile, construction activity has remained resilient, bolstered by public infrastructure projects, though private investments have slowed amid broader economic uncertainty. Energy-related sectors, especially renewable initiatives, along with the aerospace and defense, and data center markets, remain key drivers of robust demand for advanced steel products. In contrast, semiconductor and other specialty metals segments are facing challenges from cyclical downturns.

Looking ahead, the domestic steel market is focused on balancing immediate challenges with future opportunities. Strategic investments in capacity expansion, reshoring initiatives, and sustainability are positioning the industry to better serve evolving customer needs. Yet navigating tariff impacts, inflationary pressures, and global market volatility will remain critical.

As companies adapt to these shifting dynamics, their ability to execute growth strategies, maintain cost discipline, and capitalize on emerging opportunities will be pivotal in shaping the industry’s trajectory through 2025 and beyond.

Steel’s Next Chapter: Expanding Capacity and the EAF Revolution

Market consolidation and the adoption of advanced technologies like electric arc furnaces are reshaping the U.S. steel industry, positioning it for long-term growth despite near-term challenges from soft demand and a surge in imports in 2024

The U.S. steel industry is at a crossroads. While demand remains soft in the short term, new production capacity continues to come online, driven by anticipated long-term growth. Import tariffs have created short-term disruptions for smaller industry players but have also accelerated consolidation within the sector. Currently, five major companies (Nucor, Cleveland Cliffs, U.S. Steel, Steel Dynamics, and Commercial Metals Company) control over 70% of domestic steel production. Section 232 tariffs are pushing U.S. producers to further insulate the market and maximize capacity utilization, prompting expansion efforts and investments in new facilities.

On the global stage, overcapacity is emerging as a significant challenge that could create ripple effects across international markets. For instance, ASEAN countries are planning to add 104.5 million net tons of steel capacity by 2030, while India is targeting an additional 300 million tons over the same period. This excess capacity risks destabilizing the global steel market, underscoring the importance of U.S. producers taking proactive steps to protect domestic production. By insulating the market, reducing reliance on foreign imports, and strengthening the industry’s foundation, the U.S. steel sector is ensuring its resilience. After all, steel remains the backbone of America’s infrastructure and manufacturing economy.

The Shift to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Technology

A key area of focus for U.S. producers is improving production efficiency through the adoption of electric arc furnace (EAF) technology. Unlike traditional blast oxygen furnaces (BOFs), EAFs rely on scrap steel rather than iron ore, offering a more flexible cost structure and reducing CO2 emissions by 80-90%.

EAFs now dominate the U.S. steel production ecosystem, accounting for roughly 70% of output compared to 30% from BOFs. Leading companies such as Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and Commercial Metals Company have shifted their operations almost entirely to EAF-based production methods. This transition, however, is driving a significant increase in demand for ferrous scrap metal, a primary input for EAFs.

As more EAF capacity comes online, with over 17 million tons currently under construction in the U.S. alone, additional scrap metal recycling will be essential to meet this growing demand. Major players like Nucor, Commercial Metals Company, Steel Dynamics, and U.S. Steel are spearheading these projects, but the rapid adoption of EAFs could lead to a scrap metal shortage if the recycling infrastructure fails to scale quickly enough. EAF adoption is not confined to the U.S.; other key steel-producing nations, including Sweden, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea, are also investing heavily in EAF capacity, further intensifying global competition.

Signs of Stabilization

While tariffs have introduced uncertainty into the domestic steel market, recent short-term indicators suggest signs of stabilization. For the week of May 10, 2025, production levels were 4.1% higher than the year-to-date average of 1,672,000 short tons per week and 1.8% above the same week in 2024. Mill capability utilization rates also rose to 77.5%, up from 76.8% the prior week and 76.9% a year ago. These figures signal potential tailwinds heading into the second half of the year, as demand begins to recover and the market regains its footing. Looking further ahead, the global and domestic steel output forecast turns positive in 2026, offering optimism for long-term growth. However, downside risks remain, including the potential for retaliatory tariffs and the escalation of a full-blown trade war, which could create additional headwinds for the industry.

An Industry Ready to Weather Global Pressures

In summary, while the U.S. steel sector faces near-term challenges, ranging from soft demand to tariff-related uncertainty, it is adapting through technological innovation, strategic capacity expansion, and market consolidation. As producers continue to insulate domestic operations and embrace more sustainable production methods, the industry is positioning itself to weather global pressures and maintain its critical role in supporting America’s economic strength.

New Capacity Available in the U.S. Steel Market

*Source: Company Reports

Global EAF / BOF Capacity Market Share

*Source: Global Energy Monitor

U.S. Operating and Planned Steel Plants

*Source: Global Energy Monitor, Company Reports