Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, under the Trump administration, has articulated a renewed strategy for energy development via what he calls the “Four Babies” framework. These “four babies” will be the key pillars returning the U.S. energy to a position of energy dominance.¹ This month’s energy blog highlights key points for energy business leaders, investors and their advisors.

The four babies include:

• Drill Baby Drill
• Map Baby Map
• Mine Baby Mine
• Build Baby Build

The Trump administration, working with Doug Burgum, has developed a multifaceted approach to energy policy centered around four key pillars. Each “baby” represents a specific strategic focus that, when implemented together, forms a comprehensive energy dominance strategy.

Drill Baby Drill: Unleashing Oil and Gas Production

The first component of Burgum’s framework focuses on expanding oil and gas production on federal lands through streamlined permitting and increased leasing activity.

“President [Donald] Trump summarized this beautifully in three words — drill, baby, drill,” Burgum stated in his interview with Breitbart News.² This approach aims to encourage private sector investment in American energy resources by reducing regulatory barriers that have historically hindered development.

Burgum highlighted the economic benefits of oil and gas leasing on federal lands, noting that during the final weeks of Trump’s first administration, “just the state of New Mexico pulled in $900 million from lease sales.”³ These auctions provide immediate revenue to the Treasury when private companies bid on and win development rights. According to the Government Accountability Office, oil and gas companies operating on federal lands contributed approximately $75 billion between 2012 and 2022.⁴

The Interior Secretary emphasized that modern drilling techniques are far more sophisticated and environmentally responsible than outdated perceptions might suggest. He emphasized that modern drilling techniques, such as directional drilling, allow subsurface resource access with minimal surface impact:⁵

“I never touch a leaf, I don’t touch a frog, a bird, anything, and I send the federal government a check.”

This technological revolution in drilling allows for resource development with minimal surface disturbance.

Public Companies Impacted:

The following public companies could be impacted by these policies:

• EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) – Major independent shale producer in the Permian and Eagle Ford
• Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG) – Pure-play Permian shale producer
• Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) – Strong exposure to U.S. onshore plays
• ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) – Global supermajor with large U.S. upstream footprint
• Chevron (NYSE: CVX) – Active in Permian and Gulf of Mexico offshore drilling

Key Takeaway: Strong U.S. production, paired with disciplined capital allocation, is expected to support future energy independence and investor returns.

Map Baby Map: Geospatial Innovation Accelerates Discovery

The second pillar focuses on comprehensively mapping America’s natural resources through the U.S. Geological Survey, which falls under the Department of Interior. Burgum emphasized that this mapping initiative is crucial for understanding the full extent of the nation’s mineral wealth.⁶

Burgum drew inspiration from historical precedent, referencing “The Map That Changed the World,” which describes how geological mapping of Britain between 1800 and 1815 led to a century of industrial dominance and global power.⁷ By applying similar principles to America’s 700 million acres of federal land, Burgum believes the U.S. can better leverage its resource potential.⁸

The mapping initiative aims to create a more accurate inventory of America’s assets, particularly subsurface resources that remain undocumented or underexplored.⁹ “The USGS has got a job to actually go out and map those resources to find out how many trillions or hundreds of trillions of dollars of assets belong to all of you, the public,” Burgum told the Conservative Political Action Conference.¹⁰ This knowledge would provide the foundation for strategic resource development and inform policy decisions.

The Interior Secretary frames this mapping effort as part of a larger goal to create a “national balance sheet” that would serve as an accounting of the country’s assets.¹¹ He estimates America’s mineral, land, and offshore assets could be worth as much as $100 trillion—far exceeding the current national debt of approximately $36.5 trillion.¹²

Public Companies Impacted:

The following public companies could be impacted by these policies:

• Trimble Inc. (NASDAQ: TRMB) – Supplies GPS, GIS, and mapping technology for natural resources
• Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) – Offers geophysical and subsurface mapping services globally
• Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) – Leader in geological data and drilling analytics
• China Gold International Resources (NYSE: CGG) – Specializes in geoscience, seismic imaging, and exploration tech
• Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) – Provides AI/ML tools for government and energy-sector data integration, including mineral mapping

Key Takeaway: Enhanced mapping de-risks exploration, enabling faster project development and smarter capital deployment.

Mine Baby Mine: Critical Minerals and National Security

The third component addresses America’s growing dependence on foreign sources for critical minerals essential to defense, technology, and renewable energy infrastructure. Burgum has identified this dependence, particularly on Chinese supplies, as a significant national security vulnerability that must be addressed.¹³

Currently, the U.S. produces <1% of global lithium and rare earth elements, and virtually no cobalt, leaving it vulnerable to supply shocks.¹⁴ China dominates processing: refining 68% of global lithium and 85-90% of rare earths.¹⁵

“If we’re going to drill, baby, drill, then we’ve got to be asked to also mine, baby, mine,” Burgum stated, emphasizing the interconnected nature of these resource strategies.¹⁶ The United States has “killed the mining industry” over the past 30 years through excessive regulation, according to Burgum, resulting in dangerous dependence on foreign suppliers for materials essential to both traditional and emerging technologies.¹⁷

To highlight the regulatory challenges facing the mining sector, Burgum cited one copper mining project that has been seeking permits for 29 years—an example of what he considers regulatory paralysis hampering American resource development. This slow permitting process makes it difficult for the U.S. to compete globally in securing the minerals necessary for advanced manufacturing and energy technologies.

Burgum’s mining initiative aims to revitalize domestic production of critical minerals while maintaining environmental standards. The approach focuses on reducing permitting times and regulatory barriers that have made mining projects economically unfeasible in many parts of the country.¹⁸ By doing so, he hopes to create jobs, reduce import dependence, and strengthen supply chain resilience.

Public Companies Impacted:

The following public companies could be impacted by these policies:

• Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) – One of the largest lithium producers in the world
• MP Materials (NYSE: MP) – Operates the only active U.S. rare earth mine at Mountain Pass, California
• Piedmont Lithium (NASDAQ: PLL) – Developing lithium projects in the U.S. and Ghana
• Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) – Owns Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada
• Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) – Large U.S.-based copper producer; exposure to cobalt as byproduct
• Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (OTCQB: TMRC) – Early-stage U.S. rare earth developer

Key Takeaway: U.S. critical minerals are a frontier for high-growth investment, supported by federal incentives and rising geopolitical urgency.

Build Baby Build: Expanding Energy Infrastructure

The final component of Burgum’s framework focuses on expanding America’s electricity generation capacity, particularly through reliable baseload power sources. This initiative reflects concerns about the nation’s ability to meet growing energy demands, especially with the rapid advancement of electricity-intensive technologies like artificial intelligence.¹⁹

Recently, the U.S. has rapidly grown LNG capacity (11.4 Bcfd in 2023), with further projects underway to reach over 21 Bcfd by 2028.²⁰ However, electric grid upgrades are lagging. Projects like TransWest Express (approved after 18 years) highlight the need for permitting reform. The 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act introduced deadlines for environmental reviews to streamline approvals.²¹

“Electricity becomes intelligence,” Burgum noted, expressing concern that the United States is falling behind China in the global race for AI dominance due to insufficient electricity generation capacity. He contrasted American efforts to reduce coal power with China’s rapid expansion of generation capacity through multiple sources:

“China gets 60% of their electricity from coal. They added 94.5 gigawatts of coal [power] in 52 weeks. They’re basically opening up two coal plants a week at a time when we’re trying to shut all of ours down.”²²

The “build, baby, build” initiative encompasses not only power generation facilities but also transmission infrastructure and export terminals. Burgum plans to leverage the newly established National Energy Dominance Council, which he chairs, to fast-track critical infrastructure projects that have been stalled by bureaucratic processes. This “tiger team” within the White House aims to cut through regulatory red tape that has delayed energy projects, including “linear infrastructure like pipelines... natural gas, export, transmission lines, or export facilities.”

Public Companies Impacted:

The following public companies could be impacted by these policies:

• Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) – Largest U.S. LNG exporter; operates Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals
• Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) – Major pipeline operator for natural gas, CO₂, and liquids
• The Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) – Interstate natural gas pipelines and LNG feedstock supplier
• NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) – Largest U.S. utility; significant investment in grid and transmission
• Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR) – Specializes in building electric transmission lines and infrastructure
• Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) – EPC contractor for LNG, energy, and industrial facilities

Key Takeaway: Infrastructure investment is set to rise, but timelines depend on regulatory improvements. Opportunities lie in transmission, LNG, and energy storage.

Conclusion

Doug Burgum’s “Four Babies” framework represents an ambitious attempt to reorient American energy policy toward resource development and infrastructure expansion. By addressing drilling, mapping, mining, and building as interconnected priorities, the approach aims to create a comprehensive strategy for energy dominance rather than addressing each aspect in isolation.

The success of this framework will depend on the administration’s ability to implement regulatory reforms while maintaining appropriate environmental safeguards. It will also require significant private sector investment, which Burgum believes will flow more readily with reduced regulatory barriers and clear government support for energy development.

As shown in the graphic below, market participants are supportive of most of the companies focusing on these initiatives, resulting in year-to-date returns exceeding that of the S&P 500 index. The one “baby” that missed was Build Baby Build, which appears to have been negatively impacted by the release of the Chinese AI Model called DeepSeek, which raised concerns about the total number of data centers, power generation facilities and Nvidia chips that will be required in near future.

2025 Year to Date Returns: Selected Companies in Each of the Babies

In an era of escalating global energy competition—particularly with China rapidly expanding power generation capacity—Burgum’s framework positions U.S. energy policy as a linchpin of economic and national security strategy.

WTI Strip Prices Increase

Spot prices and futures prices for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract increased approximately $2.25 per barrel in the near term and increased approximately $1.00 over the longer term.

WTI Strip Prices – One Month Change

As shown, the oil price curve remains in a state of “backwardation,” reflecting the market’s expectation of lower future spot prices.

Oil Price Outlook

The price distribution below shows the crude oil spot price on April 1, 2025, as well as the predicted crude oil prices based on options and futures markets. Light blue lines are within one standard deviation (σ) of the mean, and dark blue lines are within two standard deviations.

WTI Crude Oil $/BBL

Based on these current prices, the markets indicate there is a 68% chance oil prices will range from $60.00 and $82.50 per barrel in mid-July 2025. Likewise, there is roughly a 95% chance that prices will be between $46.50 and $106.50. By mid-September 2025, the one-standard deviation (1σ) price range is $56.50 to $84.50 per barrel, and the two-standard deviation (2σ) range is $40.50 to $115.50 per barrel.

Insights

Remember that option prices and models reflect expected probabilities, not certain outcomes, but that does not make them any less useful. Throughout most of 2023 and 2024, crude oil spot prices have primarily fluctuated within the range of $70 to $90 per barrel. During that time, we observed general increases in futures price volatilities as prices neared the upper bound of that range, as evidenced by the futures price ranges observed. For mid-September 2025 pricing as of April 1, 2025, the 1σ range had a spread of $28.00 per barrel, and the 2σ range had a spread of $75.00 per barrel. For comparison, in 2022 we observed 1σ and 2σ price ranges in excess of $65.00 and $150.00, respectively.

1. Hannah Knudsen, “Doug Burgum on the ‘Four Babies’: Drill Baby Drill, Map Baby Map, Mine Baby Mine, and Build Baby Build,” Breitbart, March 19, 2025.
2. Rob Bluey, “Doug Burgum’s ‘4 Babies’ Plan For US Energy Dominance,” Tipp Insights, March 21, 2025.
3. “Doug Burgum on the ‘Four Babies’: Drill Baby Drill, Map Baby Map, Mine Baby Mine, and Build Baby,” TODAY NEWS, video, March 19, 2025.
4. Timothy Gardner, “CERAWEEK Drill more, mine more on public lands, US interior secretary urges,” Reuters, March 12, 2025.
5. “‘The Four Babies’: Doug Burgum on Going Beyond ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ to Unleash America’s Potential,” Breitbart News, video, March 19, 2025.
6. Jennifer A. Dlouhy, “Trump's Energy Czar Has Plan to 'Map, Baby, Map' US Oil Bounty,” Bloomberg News, Financial Post, February 22, 2025.
7. Breitbart News, video.
8. Bluey, Tipp Insights.
9. Dlouhy, Financial Post.
10. Ibid.
11. Bluey, Tipp Insights.
12. Dlouhy, Financial Post.
13. Bluey, Tipp Insights.
14. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries (2023)
15. “The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions,” International Energy Agency, webpage.
16. Gardner, Reuters.
17. Bluey, Tipp Insights.
18. Dlouhy, Financial Post.
19. Bluey, Tipp Insights.
20. “North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, December 30, 2024.
21. “U.S. Department of Energy Joint Annual Environmental Justice Implementation Progress Report and Second Environmental Justice Five-Year Implementation Plan, Fiscal Year 2022,” U.S. Department of Energy.
22. Bluey, Tipp Insights.