Stout served as statistical and damages rebuttal expert in an international arbitration involving a warranty cost recovery dispute between a heavy-duty vehicle manufacturer and an automotive component supplier. The engagement focused on evaluating whether the claimant’s alleged warranty damages were supported by reliable claims data, statistically valid sampling, and appropriate extrapolation methodologies.

The analysis involved reviewing warranty claims data, returned part data, photographs, witness statements, and opposing expert reports to assess the reasonableness and reliability of the claimant’s damages analysis. We evaluated whether the underlying claims population was complete and verifiable, whether selected claims and photographs represented a statistically valid sample, and whether confidence intervals and excess claims rates were appropriately applied.

We identified issues related to sample selection, data reliability, claim population reconstruction, failure-mode classification, and the treatment of potentially unrelated warranty claims. The work included statistical critique of the opposing expert’s sampling approach, analysis of correlations between claimed and non-claimed failure modes, and assessment of whether the damages model overstated warranty costs attributable to the supplier.

We submitted expert reports and rebuttal reports and provided testimony before the arbitration tribunal regarding the statistical reliability of the claimant’s methodology, the limitations of the underlying data, and the reasonableness of the resulting damages calculations.