The rapid expansion of AI data centers and cryptocurrency mining is poised to reshape the U.S. energy landscape, with significant implications for natural gas markets. This analysis explores the projected impacts, risks, and opportunities for stakeholders.

New Demand for a Strained Electrical Grid

In a recent report, Deloitte estimates data centers will drive approximately 44 gigawatts (GW) of additional electrical demand by 2030. The estimate projects a range of 26 GW to 33 GW in 2024, increasing to an additional 60 GW to 80 GW by 2030.¹ Given this expected future electrical demand, U.S. natural gas prices are likely to trend higher over the next five years as AI-driven data centers and crypto mining add persistent load to the grid, while LNG exports also tighten the domestic balance for natural gas production and consumption. Because these digital loads require 24/7 reliability, natural gas has emerged as the principal near‑term balancing resource for new electrical generation, while renewable build‑out and long‑duration storage are also scaling. In mainstream forecasts, this looks like an upward drift from today’s lows toward ~$4–$5/MMBtu by the late-2020s, with seasonal volatility around that path.²

However, the EIA’s upper range of the confidence interval for future gas prices goes up to $10 per MMBTU for natural gas by 2027, reflecting the market’s risk of much higher natural gas prices.³

Upside risks to natural gas prices include:

• Faster-than-expected AI data center build-out
• Delays to planned gas pipelines or new generation sources
• EPA regulations and the states’ various clean‑energy mandates could affect demand trajectories
• Permitting reform (or lack thereof) will influence how quickly new supply and infrastructure can respond to rising demand
• Tighter global gas balances given increased exports of LNG

Downside risks to future natural gas prices include:

• Efficiency gains in AI hardware/software
• Faster development of renewables with storage capabilities
• Mild weather
• Rapid U.S. supply response to the additional energy requirements⁴

Future Expected Demand on the U.S. Electrical Grid

U.S. data centers consumed approximately 176 TWh in 2023 (about 4.4% of U.S. electricity produced). The Department of Energy estimates usage could double to triple by 2028 (up to a level of 325–580 TWh, or 6.7–12% of U.S. electrical generation).⁵ Globally, the IEA predicts data-center electricity demand to more than double to ~945 TWh by 2030,⁶ with the United States accounting for nearly half of the growth.⁷ To fuel this increased electrical generation, the IEA expects natural gas and coal to supply greater than 40% of the additional electricity needed by data centers through 2030.⁸

It takes about 854,400 kWh of electricity to produce one Bitcoin in 2025, on average. At the same time, daily bitcoin mining uses more electricity than the entire country of Belgium requires over the same 24-hour period.⁹ At an estimated five cents per kWh for electricity, this equates to $42,720 of electricity for each Bitcoin produced.

U.S. crypto mining is expected to have less of an impact, but it will continue to tax the grid, consuming approximately 0.6%–2.3% of U.S. electricity.¹⁰ AI data centers and crypto mining operations will likely lean on gas-fired generation (for dispatchability and siting speed), even as renewables’ share of the power supply also rises.¹¹

Impact on U.S. Gas Demand & Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices

The EIA’s current outlook has Henry Hub averaging about $3.90/MMBTU in 4Q 2025, growing to $4.30/MMBTU in 2026.¹² The U.S. power mix remains gas-heavy even as renewables grow. EIA predicts that natural gas will fire about 40% of U.S. electricity generated in 2025–2026.¹³ It is important to note that the new AI data center load does not act alone, but it reinforces other bullish forces (notably, increased LNG exports) expected to increase natural gas prices.

LNG Exports Tie U.S. Natural Gas Prices to International Gas Prices

The EIA expects North American LNG capacity to more than double by 2028, with U.S. nominal capacity reaching a capacity of 21.2 Bcf/d by 2028.¹⁴ S&P Global’s base case forecast is for LNG exports to climb to approximately 28 Bcf/d by 2030.¹⁵

As for the impact of increased LNG exports and natural gas prices, the Department of Energy’s 2024 LNG study implied that prices would increase by $0.03/MMBtu for each additional Bcf per day of additional exports by 2050.¹⁶ Resources for the Future (RFF) suggests the impacts on natural gas pricing could be even larger.¹⁷ Overall, as LNG exports grow, U.S. gas prices become anchored by global netbacks, limiting how low they can go when the world’s supplies become tight.

Supply & Infrastructure Developments

Additional pipeline capacity could offset some of these upward pricing pressures. In the Permian, natural gas production in excess of the current infrastructure's capacity sometimes results in negative Waha gas prices.¹⁸ New pipelines expected to come online soon include the:

• Matterhorn Express, able to move about 2.5 Bcf/d
• Apex Pipeline, with a capacity of 2.0 Bcf/d
• Blackcomb Pipeline, with a capacity of 2.5 Bcf/d
• Saguaro Connector Pipeline with a capacity of 2.8 Bcf/d slated to become operational in 2026–28¹⁹

These pipelines under development are shown on the following map:²⁰

Crypto Mining’s “Flex Load”

Bitcoin miners in ERCOT will agree to curtail 90–95% of their electrical consumption during times of electrical grid stress, but they are compensated for this. For instance, the Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms earned approximately $32 million in August 2023 by selling pre-purchased power back to the grid.²¹ These voluntary (paid) reductions can dampen peak-hour gas demand even if mining adds to baseline demand.²²

Concluding Thoughts

In summary, the intersection of AI, crypto mining, and LNG exports is set to drive U.S. natural gas prices higher over the next decade. Businesses requiring large amounts of natural gas should closely monitor these trends and consider strategic responses to mitigate risk and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Under most plausible scenarios, Henry Hub futures prices are expected to trend above recent averages:

• Low demand case: mid‑$3s to low‑$4s per MMBTU
• Base case: ~$4–$5 per MMBTU
• High demand case: potentially up to $5–$6 by 2030

WTI Strip Prices Increase

Spot prices and futures prices for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract increased approximately $0.75 per barrel in the near term and increased approximately $0.75 over the longer term.

WTI Strip Prices - One Month Change

WTI Crude Oil $/BBL

As shown, after the expectation of lower near-term pricing, the oil price curve is shifting to a state of “contango,” reflecting the market’s expectation of higher future spot prices over the longer term.

Oil Price Outlook

The price distribution below shows the crude oil spot price on September 15, 2025, as well as the predicted crude oil prices based on options and futures markets. Light blue lines are within one standard deviation (σ) of the mean, and dark blue lines are within two standard deviations.

Based on these current prices, the markets indicate there is a 68% chance oil prices will range from $53.50 and $74.00 per barrel in mid-December 2025. Likewise, there is roughly a 95% chance that prices will be between $40.00 and $107.00. By mid-February 2026, the one-standard deviation (1σ) price range is $51.00 to $77.50 per barrel, and the two-standard deviation (2σ) range is $35.50 to $123.00 per barrel.

Insights

Remember that while option prices and models reflect expected probabilities rather than certain outcomes, they remain a useful tool for assessing market expectations and risk. Throughout most of 2023 and 2024, crude oil spot prices generally fluctuated within the range of $70 to $90 per barrel. During that period, we observed general increases in futures price volatilities as prices approached the upper and lower bounds of that range. In recent months, crude oil spot prices have generally remained below that range, apart from a brief spike driven by the conflict between Israel and Iran. For mid-February 2026 pricing as of September 15, 2025, the 1σ range had a spread of $26.50 per barrel, and the 2σ range had a spread of $87.50 per barrel, indicating a general increase in spreads as the market remains uncertain about future price expectations.

1. Marlene Motyka, Thomas L. Keefe, Kate Harin, and Carolyn Amon, “2025 Renewable Energy Industry Outlook,” Deloitte Research Center for Energy & Industrials, December 9, 2024.
2. “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 9, 2025.
3. Ibid.
4. “Energy and AI: Executive Summary,” IEA.
5. Arman Shehabi, Alex Newkirk, et. al, “United States Data Center Energy Usage Report.” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report #: LBNL-2001637. 2024.
6. “Energy and AI: Executive Summary,” IEA.
7. Ibid.
8. “Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025,” IEA, July 2025.
9. “The Real Cost of Bitcoin Mining in 2025,” Compare Forex Brokers, November 8, 2025.
10. “Tracking electricity consumption from U.S. cryptocurrency mining operations,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, February 1, 2024.
11. “Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025,” IEA, July 2025.
12. “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 9, 2025.
13. Ibid.
14. “North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, December 30, 2024.
15. “Major New US Industry at a Crossroads: A US LNG Impact Study – Phase 1,” Report by Commodity Insights and Market Intelligence, S&P Global, December 2024.
16. “Energy, Economic, and Environmental Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports,” U.S. Department of Energy, December 2024.
17. Brian Prest, Alan Krupnick, and Jordan Wingenroth, “Unpacking the Department of Energy’s Report on US Liquefied Natural Gas Exports,” Resources for the Future, March 2025.
18. Scott Disavino, “US natgas prices at Waha hub in Texas fall into negative territory,” Reuters, May 19, 2025.
19. “Natural gas pipeline capacity from the Permian Basin is set to increase,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 10, 2024.
20. Ibid.
21. Kevin Vu and Emily Foxhall, “U.S. Energy Information Administration,” The Texas Tribune, January 3, 2024.
22. David Pan, “Bitcoin Miner Made Millions in Credits by Shutting Rigs During Texas Heat,” Bloomberg, August 3, 2022.